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2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything Hardcover – 25 August 2020
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Wall Street Journal Bestseller
One of Adam Grant's 15 Leadership Books of the Summer
An interesting book...it talked about the kinds of trends we might see in society over the next decade and how do we prepare for that today.
--Indra Nooyi, former CEO of PepsiCo, on a podcast
--Angela Duckworth, New York Times bestselling author of Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance 2030 is a one-stop list of the most transformational trends that, in a decade, will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and interact forever. From demographic shifts, to urbanization, changes in the gender/wealth nexus, technological diminution and adjustments of the global economy, Mauro Guillen reminds us of our interconnectedness and vulnerabilities, and as such this is a must read book, which we simply cannot afford to ignore.
--Dambisa Moyo, New York Times bestselling author of Edge of Chaos: Why Democracy is Failing to Create Economic Growth and How to Fix It "In 2030, Mauro Guillen offers a convincing and compelling strategy for successfully navigating the seismic changes in our demography, economy, technology, and culture that will define the next decade."
--Cal Newport, New York Times bestselling author of Deep Work and Digital Minimalism
"We know a lot about what's going on with dollars and cents, but we're surprisingly uninformed about how social structures are transforming the world around us. Mauro Guillen, a brilliant sociologist, is here to change that. His bold, provocative book illuminates why we're having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising."
--Adam Grant, New York Times bestselling author of Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World, and host of the TED podcast WorkLife Every company and organization must anticipate how different markets, consumers, and society as a whole will change in order to remain competitive in the long-term. In 2030, Guillen shows why this kind of foresight is more important now than in any time in recent memory. Lively, important, and urgent, 2030 is a must read for anyone who wants to truly understand the biggest trends of the coming decade.
--William P. Lauder, Executive Chairman, The Estée Lauder Companies These interconnected shifts in the way we live and work, our politics and culture, and our time on earth add up to the most massive disruption and change in human history. In 2030, Mauro Guillen weaves all these threads and more together to provide a veritable guidebook for this brave new world we will leave to our children. Must reading for business and political leaders, city-builders and everyone concerned about what the future will bring.
--Richard Florida, author of the international bestseller, The Rise of the Creative Class: And How It's Transforming Work, Leisure, Community and Everyday Life Global change accelerates every decade, meaning from now to 2030 will be a roller-coaster ride as we have never witnessed before. In this wide-ranging and illuminating book, Mauro Guillen covers a range of important megatrends to capture a world that lies right around the corner.
--Dr. Parag Khanna, Managing Partner of FutureMap and bestselling author of The Future is Asian
This sharp, well-informed analysis of present-day trends and future outcomes provides valuable insights to investors, business owners, and policy makers.
--Publishers Weekly "Mauro's book will be a must-read for those looking to understand the what, why and so what of transformational global change - that is, new trends that are emerging in a decisive, durable and impactful fashion; why they are doing so; and what this means not just for countries and companies, but also for households and communities."
--Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser, Allianz, and bestselling author of When Markets Collide By the author's projections, 50% of Americans will be obese in 2030....Regarding the issue of population, the world will be older almost everywhere. Interestingly, Guillén links the success of Airbnb and other aspects of the sharing economy to older persons who want to remain in their homes but find them large enough to offer rooms to rent... Students of population biology, gerontology, and finance alike will find value in these pages.
--Kirkus Review 2030 is a book that will stimulate the imagination of everyone who reads it.
--International Policy Digest In Mauro F. Guillén's new book, 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, the author lays out an astonishing list of things to expect and how these will impact all of us in very dramatic ways... No matter your profession, the ability to stay relevant and thrive in your career over the next decade will require more than simply staying up to date on your domain expertise and general business knowledge. You will also need to expand your ability to think creatively and strengthen your overall social skills.
--The Seattle Post-Intelligencer An intriguing book for anyone who plans on living, doing business, or relaxing in the next decade or so. It'll require some between-the-lines reading, but it'll also spark thought, too. If you need to know the future, even just a little bit, the need for 2030 is crystal clear.
--The Nashville Ledger This is a remarkable book... I have difficulty praising this book too highly.
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As I too fast approach octogenarian status, I'm ever more aware that I'm not ready to leave this world (whether I'm looking down or up when I get there is a topic for another day). A big reason for this is my fascination with what the future has in store. Some of that is influenced by where I started - growing up using crank telephones, watching a tiny black-and-white TV screen while my dad was on the roof rotating the TV antenna to get the channel we wanted (one of only three available, I might add) and helping my mom put soppy wet clothes through the wringer of her washing machine. I gravitated toward books written by futurists - researchers like Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Faith Popcorn.
So when this book came within my sights, I zeroed in. And I certainly wasn't disappointed - if anything, it's made me more determined to hang around as long as I can to see how the author's predictions play out. He holds the Zandman Professorship in International Management at the Wharton School, and clearly he's done extensive research on the subject (just check out the extensive list of sources at the end of the book). But while he's an academic, the book really doesn't read like a textbook (neither is it something you can skim, but it was so interesting that doing that never entered my mind). He got my attention early on with just one sentence: "Simply put, the world as we know it today will be gone by 2030."
Oh yeah? Tell me more. And he does, in eight chapters that focus on various topics ranging from changing demographics - by 2030, for instance, the world's largest generation will be age 60 and up (even today, they own 80% of the net worth in the United States alone) and half of the world's wealth will be owned by women 10 years from now. Also interesting to me is the change in birth rates; by 2030, the author notes, one-third of American men and two-thirds of American women will retire childless. As for technology, we ain't seen nuthin' yet. By 2030, there will be more computers than human brains and more robotic arms than human labor in the manufacturing sector. "Artificial Intelligence will bring about epochal change," the author maintains. We're also moving fast toward a cashless world. Today, more than 80% of all international trade is invoiced in dollars - but that will change (pun intended) fast.
For I've read that the author has added his take on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to the final version of the book, but alas, my pre-release copy for review (for which I thank the publisher, via NetGalley), did not include it. I'd also be interested in his opinion on what effect the current U.S. administration will have on progress, but that's not in here either. I'm no expert, but I do have a couple of theories. First, the advances in technology noted here that relate to our personal lives - like a no-currency, no bank society - may be slowed because the current administration is allowing - even encouraging - people who believe the government is conspiring against them to come out of the woodwork. No way will these folks willingly give up their "guaranteed Constitutional right to privacy," no matter how much it may improve their quality of life. Meanwhile, the pandemic has shown us (well, at least my husband and I) that we can see, hear and buy just about anything we need and want without ever leaving home; that could help speed up the permeation of technology into just about every facet of daily living (especially the cashless society thing). Only time will tell - but if you want to get ready, I encourage you to read this book.
Here comes Thomas Robert Malthus 3.0. Mauro F. Guillen takes the reader through a series of topics over the course of the book, explaining current changes we see in society, geography and technology. He takes current observations and trends, calculates some magic formulas in his head, generates forecasts and comes up with general climate for our way of living 10 years from now.
As Thomas Malthus or John Maynard Keynes before him, he is going to be wrong, we know that. The former two lived during the industrial revolution, but did not anticipate the innovations the agricultural revolution brought. Mauro of course cannot predict major disruptions caused by things no one can see yet, like a major unprecedented pandemic, for example. There also will be technologies emerging, faster than ever.
But at the end, Thomas Malthus "Essay on the principles of population" was still a stellar publication, the author still famous, and we are still worried about how we use the resources on this planet 200 years after its publication. This book is a refresher on the same thought process. At the conclusion he kind of sort of admits that he is likely going to be wrong and brings his thoughts to a very sensible ending. It is the shift of your thinking that makes this book great, and it is ok if he is going to be wrong. His thought process isn't.
The basis of these changes is technology which changes everything including politics, economics, culture, and personal behavior. We are now in a world where it is believed the problem of production has been solved and the only problem left is distribution. The same thing was said in 1848 with the Communist Manifesto but it is now believed we have really solved the production problem. This has led to the current culture based on self-expression from a culture based on self-reliancel.
As the author explains, such basic changes bring about creativity in abandoning old assumptions and ignoring old rules. This can be clearly seen in politics. Even before Trump the idea of "our democracy" was already largely a myth with an un-elected Supreme Court acting as a super-legislature. When the voters surprised the establishment by electing Trump the underlying myths of "our democracy" were revealed.
The political establishment tried one coup after another to reverse the election and then managed to subvert the 2020 election by prohibiting nearly every requirement for voter IDs and nearly every signature requirement for mail-in ballots. After the election the courts made sure that no one could inspect any ballot.
Historians now explain how in 27 BC the Roman Republic changed from being a democracy to a dictatorship under the Roman Empire. But most people did not realize this at the time because all of the formalities of the republic were maintained. The same is true today where the formalities of democracy are maintained but the elites showed the public what will happen when it elects the wrong candidate.
All this means we are witnessing the end of America as we knew it which was based on the work ethic, self-reliance, democracy, and nationalism. The new America is based on welfare, sharing, fiat rule by elites, and globalism.