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IkeF

Philosophical theorizing about the possible risks of some possible kinds of AI

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 13 August 2018

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The first chapter is an interesting, concise history of AI. The following chapters, though... I have to say that if anything, Bostrom's writing reminds me of theology. It's not lacking in rigor or references. Bostrom seems highly intelligent and well-read. The problem (for me) is rather that the main premise he starts with is one that I find less than credible. Most of the book boils down to "Let's assume that there exists a superintelligence that can basically do whatever it wants, within the limits of the laws of physics. With this assumption in place, let's then explore what consequences this could have in areas X, Y, and Z." The best Bostrom can muster in defense of his premise that superintelligence will (likely) be realized (sometime in the future) are the results of various surveys of AI researchers about when they think human-level AI and superintelligence will be achieved. These summaries don't yield any specific answer as to when human-level AI will be attained (it's not reported ), and Bostrom is evasive as to what his own view is. However, Bostrom seems to think, if you don't commit to any particular timeline on this question, you can assume that at some point human-level AI will be attained. Now, once human-level AI is achieved, it'll be but a short step to superintelligence, says Bostrom. His argument as to why this transition period should be short is not too convincing. We are basically told that the newly developed human-level AI will soon engineer itself (don't ask exactly how) to be so smart that it can do stuff we can't even begin to comprehend (don't ask how we can know this), so there's really no point in trying to think about it in much detail. The AI Lord works in mysterious ways! With these foundations laid down, Bostrom can then start his speculative tour-de-force that goes through various "existential risk" scenarios and the possibilities of preventing or mitigating them, the economics of AI/robot societies, and various ethical issues relating to AI. I found the chapters on risks and AI societies to be pure sci-fi with even less realism than "assume spherical cows". The chapters on ethics and value acquistion did however contain some interesting discussion.

All in all, throughout the book I had an uneasy feeling that the author is trying to trick me with a philosophical sleight of hand. I don't doubt Bostrom's skills with probability calculations or formalizations, but the principle "garbage in - garbage out" applies to such tools also. If one starts with implausible premises and assumptions, one will likely end up with implausible conclusions, no matter how rigorously the math is applied. Bostrom himself is very aware that his work isn't taken seriously in many quarters, and at the end of the book, he spends some time trying to justify it. He makes some self-congratulatory remarks to assure sympathethic readers that they are really smart, smarter than their critics (e.g. "[a]necdotally, it appears those currently seriously interested in the control problem are disproportionately sampled from one extreme end of the intelligence distribution" [p. 376]), suggests that his own pet project is the best way forward in philosophy and should be favored over other approaches ("We could postpone work on some of the eternal questions for a little while [...] in order to focus our own attention on a more pressing challenge: increasing the chance that we will actually have competent successors" [p. 315]), and ultimately claims that "reduction of existential risk" is humanity's principal moral priority (p. 320). Whereas most people would probably think that concern for the competence of our successors would push us towards making sure that the education we provide is both of high quality and widely available and that our currently existing and future children are well fed and taken care of, and that concern for existential risk would push us to fund action against poverty, disease, and environmental degradation, Bostrom and his buddies at their "extreme end of the intelligence distribution" think this money would be better spent funding fellowships for philosophers and AI researchers working on the "control problem". Because, if you really think about it, what of a millions of actual human lives cut short by hunger or disease or social disarray, when in some possible future the lives of 10^58 human emulations could be at stake? That the very idea of these emulations currently only exists in Bostrom's publications is no reason to ignore the enormous moral weight they should have in our moral reasoning!

Despite the criticism I've given above, the book isn't necessarily an uninteresting read. As a work of speculative futurology (is there any other kind?) or informed armchair philosophy of technology, it's not bad. But if you're looking for an evaluation of the possibilites and risks of AI that starts from our current state of knowledge - no magic allowed! - then this is definitely not the book for you.

82 people found this helpful

Anthony Gray

Stretching.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 14 January 2022

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This book goes well beyond its remit and stretches off into fanciful flights of whimsy far far into the future. This completely put me off. It's also terribly written. As a long time popular science and philosophy reader this book was hard going, bored me to tears and was largely uninsightful.

3 people found this helpful

Robnarc

A seminal book. Challenging but readable, the urgency is real.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 29 June 2017

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A clear, compelling review of the state of the art, potential pitfalls and ways of approaching the immensely difficult task of maximising the chance that we'll all enjoy the arrival of a superintelligence. An important book showcasing the work we collectively need to do BEFORE the fact. Given the enormity of what will likely be a one-time event, this is the position against which anyone involved in the development of AI must justify their approach, whether or not they are bound by the Official Secrets Act.

The one area in which I feel Nick Bostrom's sense of balance wavers is in extrapolating humanity's galactic endowment into an unlimited and eternal capture of the universe's bounty. As Robert Zubrin lays out in his book Entering Space: Creating a Space-Faring Civilization , it is highly unlikely that there are no interstellar species in the Milky Way: if/when we (or our AI offspring!) develop that far we will most likely join a club.

The abolition of sadness , a recent novella by Walter Balerno is a tightly drawn, focused sci fi/whodunit showcasing exactly Nick Bostrom's point. Once you start it pulls you in and down, as characters develop and certainties melt: when the end comes the end has already happened...

12 people found this helpful

Javier sanchez

Great info but too detailed and overly technical, not for the general public

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 6 January 2019

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You can tell the author's made a thorough work in studying and compiling all his thoughts and facts but unfortunately the book ends up being really difficult to navigate for people with a general interest in AI but who lacks an IT background and the appetite for all the technical details

9 people found this helpful

Jennifer Juniper

Worrying stuff but seriously good read!

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 14 April 2021

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This is very worrying stuff, it seems it should be in the realms of science fiction, that's why it's so troubling! But it's going on all around us at pace. Really excellent discussion of the whole issue of artificial and human intelligence. Highly recommended.

2 people found this helpful

Hard work

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 6 March 2022

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You need to be super intelligent to understand this one! It’s pretty hard going especially once you get past half way. A lot of armchair theorising which I guess the subject matter requires but was hoping for an easier more interesting read based on the good reviews.

One person found this helpful

Wolf Taylor

A difficult read by an excellent strategic analyst on the very real existential threat posed ...

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 1 November 2016

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A difficult read by an excellent strategic analyst on the very real existential threat posed by AI. Bostrom could have opened with chapter 10 of the book by introducing the various castes of AI and the potential threats they pose and then gone into examining the challenges to controlling these threats (chapter 9). He could have then asked the pivotal mid second-act question, 'Is the default outcome doom?' (chapter 8). Consequently he forced me to read his book backwards! I might recommend that Nick Bostrom would profit by reading a good book on story structure! Bob McKee would be my first choice. Nevertheless has some gems and still to be recommended by one of the authorities on the subject.

7 people found this helpful

Liam

Wake me up

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 15 December 2021

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This put me to sleep, so if you're an insomniac, would definitely recommend.

One person found this helpful

Amazon Customer

Great book

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 18 September 2018

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Not a quick read but something that will take a while to go through if you're researching and read more on the topics mentions, good book nonetheless.

Anonymous Customer

Everyone should read this

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 16 April 2016

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Excellent, comprehensive reading for the build up to artificial intelligence. I originally read this book after I heard that Elon Musk had - it was far more detailed than I expected and covered aspects of artificial intelligence that I had not considered before. It convers a broad variety of techniques but focuses on the paths that are most likely.

5 people found this helpful

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