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Die inhaltliche Thematik habe meine Vor-Rezensenten schon erläutert, ich möchte hier lieber schnell auf ein paar andere Punkte eingehen.
Ich fand das theoretische Modell mit "Signals of Change", "Competitive Battles" und "Strategic Choices" sowie die Ideen der "Disruption" (natürlich schon in vorherigen Büchern von Herrn Christensen erläutert) sowie "low-end customers und "non-consuming customers" einfach .. eben erfrischend. Viele Entwicklungen (s. Smartphone Markt etc.) lassen sich dadurch erklären. Hier kommen wir nun aber auch zum großen Manko solcher "Big Stragety" Bücher: Man muss sich fragen, inwiefern sich eine Handlungsorientierung nach dem Lesen ergibt. Erkennt man dadurch wirklich besser Trends? Kann ich darauf mein Geschäft aufbauen oder verbessern? Auch wenn man vielleicht zu einem leichten "ja" nach Christensens Buch geneigt ist, stellt man doch schnell fest, dass zu viele Nebenfaktoren viel wichtiger sind als das Wissen um "Seeing what's next" - wie z.B. technisches Know-how, Teams, Kooperation, Kreativität etc. Meiner Meinung nach sorgt das Buch eher für eine ex-post Erklärung, gibt aber im Vergleich zu Büchern über die vorherigen Punkte weniger Innovationsanreize.
Für den Studenten von "Strategic Management" oder ähnlich Interessierte definitiv lesenswert, eines der durchdachteren Modelle auf dem Markt.
"Seeing What's Next" is the third book in a series, following "The Innovators Dilemma" and "The innovators Solution". The Innovators Dilemma was excellent, but the Innovators Solution was weak (see my amazon review). So, it was hard to know what to expect of "Seeing What's Next," all I knew is that it was a major business book 10 years ago and that I had avoided reading it till now. Well... I think I wouldn't have minded if I would have avoided it a bit longer. It doesn't add much to the previous books and wasn't great reading. It suffered from the same problems as the Innovators Solution.
"Seeing What's Next" consists of 2 parts. The first part introduces a couple of techniques to evaluate companies disruptive potential (based on the theory developed in the Innovators Dilemma and the Innovators Solution). The second part uses these tools to analyze six industries: 1) Education, 2) Airlines, 3) Microprocessors, 4) Healthcare, 5) Countries, and 6) Telecom.
The first part consists of 3+1 chapters. The first 3 chapters provide a 3-step evaluation method to see whether a company has the potential to disrupt another company. The steps are: 1) What signs are there that change is possible, 2) How do the summary of the companies look like, 3) What strategic decisions did the company make. The first chapter summarizes the previous 2 books. The second chapter explains how to quickly evaluate a company based on the theory-techniques used in the previous books and the third looks at the decisions that management has made related to the potentially disruptive change. The fourth chapter looks at the influence of government on all of this.
The second part goes over different case studies. How will remote learning disrupt educational institutes. Will airlines be disrupted? What is the future of Intel and other chip makers? What does disruption look like in healthcare? How can we use the theory for deciding national government strategy? And the last case study related to the telecom industry. Now, *that* chapter was most interesting to me as I worked in the telecom industry for about 15 years now. So, I figured that I could say something about the analyzes done. In my opinion, it is quite a mess, the analysis that is (also the industry, but that is a different thing). Technology-wise the authors make a mess by confusing IP with VOIP and missing the history of package-switched systems (e.g. complaining about its reliability, whereas the technology was developed for the purpose of reliability). Also, the author is completely missing the point about how innovation and inventions have been created in the industry. But the worst of all, the authors completely miss out the role of the equipment manufacturers and only focus on the role of the network operators. In my opinion, a big mistake. It is also no surprise that the predictions are mostly false (at least, as far as the last 10 years). In fact, I wouldn't draw the conclusion that the "theory" can help predict disruptive change, but my conclusion would be more than in-depth knowledge is a prerequisite of predicting anything.
That also leads me to something that bothered me the whole book (and also the Innovators Solution), which is the book builds up a "theory" which 'managers' (it seems from authors perspective there are only managers in companies) can use to predict disruption and that way avoid its pitfalls. The problem though... theory must be based on certain assumptions, such as... how do companies work? The authors never clarify their assumptions about the world that forms the basis of their 'theory' so we must figure it out based on their 'theory' and how they describe it. I can't say what these assumptions are, but, especially the assumptions about companies feel very very traditional and extremely manager-focused. They do not match with my experiences at all.
But my favorite part of the book must be how the authors write a whole book about using theory to "See Whats Next." They argue we need to use theory instead of history, because history mostly 'predicts' the past but not the future. Then they end the book with this quote "Indeed, the telecommunications industry has historically seen waves of disruptive innovations that in other contexts might have systematically changes the structure of the industry ... nothing has fundamentally reshaped the industry since the introduction of the telephone". I don't know how to interpret that, but it weakens the whole books premise.
How Will You Measure Your Life?
, inspired me to re-look at his earlier "Seeing What's Next" (written with different co-authors).
The former book helps one consider ways innovation theories (e.g. new ways of conceiving services such as 'Uber' and 'Lyft' disrupted the personal transportation industry) can be brought to bear in one's personal life (see my review of that work), while the later remains an indispensible reference for these theories and their application.
Agreeing with other reviewers that there are many positive aspects to this book, the Introduction, Conclusion (What's Next?), Appendix (Summary of Key Concepts), and Glossary are particularly helpful as quick guides and "job aides."
For instance, the Introduction explains the core theories of innovation, e.g. why certain actions, such as disruptive innovations, lead to certain results. It also emphasizes the benefits of good theory in looking into the future in the face of conclusive business data only about the past (see such examples as in my review of Eric Topol's
The Creative Destruction of Medicine: How the Digital Revolution Will Create Better Health Care
The Conclusion recaps the book providing a figure that concisely compiles the "questions in the analytical process" including those regarding "signals of change," "competitive battles," and "strategic choices." Another figure offers "lessons" from theory based analyses of the education, aviation, semiconductor, health care, and telecommunication industries----a jumping off point to other Christensen books on particular sectors, e.g. education ("Disrupting Class") and health care ("Innovators Prescription").
In the Appendix, there are figures and text that summarize "the theory building process," theories of "disruptive innovation," "resources/processes/values," "jobs to be done," "value chain evolution," "schools of experience," and "emergent strategy." Similar charts and brief descriptions also recount "sustaining innovation classification," "discovery driven planning," and "motivation/ability" frameworks. The Glossary conveys definitions of these and other related terms.
This book is a key to Disruptive Innovation theory and a roadmap to be consulted in its use.
The Innovators Dilemma and Innovators Solution were two books that change the way people think about innovation, disruption, technology, products and markets. These two books are completed in this new work Seeing What's Next. This book is the practioners guide on how to apply these theories.
People who are new to these ideas should read the other two books first, or read the Innovators Solution if you have only time to read one book. Why? Well Seeing What's next has a subtle assumption that the reader is familiar with the concepts in the other "Innovators" books. That assumption is needed to move the focus from explaining the theory to providing insights into how to apply it.
Seeing What's Next quickly reviews the core theories from the other "Innovators" books and then moves onto specific industry application of these ideas in aviation, higher education, semiconductors, and healthcare. The industry analysis is particularly helpful in seeing the nuances of the theory and its application.
For those looking to disrupt the competition and think about how to avoid disruption, this is the book for you. It should be read by your Product Management, Marketing, IT and Business Strategy groups for different reasons. Product management should use these tools to understand current products in relationship to non-consumers, overshoot customers, and underserved customers. Marketing should read the book to understand the fact that markets have these different customers and incorprate these as part of their ideas on segementation. IT need to read this to understand the role it can plan in bringing technologies and information to products and sevices. Finally business strategy groups need to understand the forces of disruption to either create it or respond to it.
This book is not for the causal business reader. If you are looking to apply these ideas -- then read "Seeing What's Next". If you want to be up on the ideas and concepts, then consider reading Innovators Solution first, then this book.